Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has left many questions unanswered, including what the end goal might be. In the short term, Kyiv says it is seeking to establish a “buffer zone” within the Kursk region, one of several border territories from which Russia has launched missile strikes that have pummelled Ukraine.
However, analysts suggest the surprise operation may also be about Ukraine assuring western allies it can still bring the fight to Russia despite being outgunned and outmanned. That could even help push Moscow to the negotiating table on better terms for the Ukrainians, some experts say.
“This has not changed the course of the war, because (the Ukrainians) simply lack military power to do so,” said Andrew Rasiulis, a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. “But they can improve their bargaining position.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made similar comments, though he and the Kremlin have yet to agree to any ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, Putin has vowed to push the Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, but days of intense battles have so far failed to oust them.
Ukrainian forces first entered the Kursk region on Aug. 6 from Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, appearing to catch both the West and the Kremlin by surprise.
The Russian province is far north of what’s long been established as the front line of the war, the southeastern Donbas region of Ukraine that Russia annexed in the fall of 2022, months after launching its full-scale invasion.
That roughly 1,000-kilometre front line has remained largely deadlocked for well over a year. An attempted Ukrainian counteroffensive last year failed to win back any significant territory, and the military has since struggled through both a dwindling number of soldiers — requiring a controversial conscription law — and a slowdown in military aid from the U.S., its largest western supplier.
In recent months, Russia has been pursuing a concerted push in the Donetsk region, hammering Ukrainian villages and towns with artillery, missiles and bombs and forcing defensive troops to retreat.
Ukraine has long complained of being hamstrung in defending itself against Russian missile attacks by U.S. and allied instructions to not use western-supplied weapons to strike territory within Russia’s traditional borders. The U.S. has only allowed limited strikes in territory north of Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s north, to stave off attacks on that densely populated region.
The Kursk offensive, which Ukraine only began to confirm early this week, is another way to bring an end to the cross-border bombardments, Kyiv says.
Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in a video posted to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Telegram channel Thursday that his forces have since advanced into more than 1,150 square kilometres of the Kursk region, though it was not possible to independently verify that claim.
If true, it would mean Ukraine has captured in just one week almost as much land as Russian forces took — 1,175 square kilometres — between January and July this year, according to calculations by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
In the video, Syrskyi said Kyiv’s forces have advanced 35 kilometres into Kursk over the past week and taken control of 82 settlements, believed to be villages and hamlets.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s forces have been moving forward in the Kursk region and that the operation is also meant to lift the country’s spirits after 900 days of war and to make an emphatic statement about Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Moscow has sought to downplay the incursion and says Ukraine’s claims are overblown. Still, authorities have evacuated about 132,000 people from the Kursk and neighbouring Belgorod regions and have plans to evacuate another 59,000 more.
Ukrainian troops also took more than 100 Russian soldiers prisoner, Syrskyi said. Zelenskyy said they would eventually be swapped for Ukrainian prisoners of war.
Analysts say the incursion is unlikely to shift the dynamics of the conflict.
“Russia still has numbers on its side,” said Joseph Varner, deputy director of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute who served as a senior advisor and policy director to former defence minister Peter Mackay. “And it can rely on conscriptions from within the country and pull fighters from less intense areas of Ukraine to send to Kursk without relying on troops from the front line.”
The counteroffensive in Kursk may prove to be “brutal,” he added, once those additional forces and weapons arrive.
Zelenskyy has proposed peace talks to be held in November that would include Russia, after the country was not invited to an earlier summit in Switzerland in June. But the Kremlin has said the prospect of talks has been put on a “long pause” by the Kursk operation.
The White House, which says it was not given advance notice by Kyiv of its plans and has been careful not to comment on the operation, has made clear their opinion about how Putin should respond.
“This is Putin’s war,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday. “And if he doesn’t like it, if it’s making him a little uncomfortable, then there’s an easy solution: he can just get the hell out of Ukraine and call it a day.”
Conclusion:
Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has sent shockwaves through the international community. While Ukraine’s military capabilities are being put to the test, the real question remains: what is the end goal of this operation? Will it lead to a negotiated peace or simply prolong the conflict? Only time will tell.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Q: What is the significance of the Kursk region in Ukraine’s war with Russia?
A: The Kursk region is a strategic area that allows Ukraine to strike back at Russian missile attacks and establish a "buffer zone" to protect its own territory.
Q: Why did Ukraine choose to launch an operation in the Kursk region?
A: Ukraine wants to show that it can still bring the fight to Russia despite being outgunned and outmanned, and to make an emphatic statement about its military capabilities.
Q: What is the impact of the Kursk operation on the conflict?
A: The operation is unlikely to shift the dynamics of the conflict, but it may put pressure on Russia to negotiate a peace deal.
Q: What is the next step for Ukraine and Russia?
A: Ukraine has proposed peace talks to be held in November, but the Kremlin has said the prospect of talks has been put on a "long pause" by the Kursk operation.